In a growing body of research in macroeconomics, a consensus is emerging that the effects of monetary and fiscal policy differ substantially depending on the "regime" of the economic structure. In the existing literature, such regimes are defined in several ways. Some studies classify regimes based on institutional conditions (for example, before and after the Plaza Accord), while others rely on economic and financial conditions (such as periods of zero interest rates, expansionary fiscal policy, or financial crises). Alternatively, researchers estimate econometric models that incorporate regime changes and apply them to time-series data on macroeconomic variables to identify the timing of different regimes. Once these regimes are identified, policy effects are estimated separately for each period.
Empirical analysis of state-dependent policy effects, however, often treats regimes (identified solely from macroeconomic variables) as given. This approach may lead to a biased estimate of the differences in policy effectiveness across regimes. Therefore, this project exploits not only macroeconomic data but also micro-level financial data and high-frequency data from financial markets to investigate economic developments over the past half-century and examine how the economic structure has evolved over time. The project will offer proposals for the appropriate design of monetary and fiscal policy for the next generation.
The study of inequality in economics has long focused primarily on income and wage disparities. However, as inequality has become a major concern in many societies, the recent focus has shifted not only to economic disparity but also to disparities in education, health, information, infrastructure, and other important dimensions. Research using historical data and focusing on intergenerational linkage is also conducted to examine the mechanisms behind inequality and its persistence. Nevertheless, these studies are done in individual fields and are not shared broadly.
Our project aims to share the knowledge acquired across fields and examine them from a broader perspective. We will clarify the cons and pros of this research and use the available data to construct new data. We aim to study and clarify the multidimensional disparities and their interrelationships. Our research will examine the disparity in social welfare, how it is created, how it persists, and how it should be resolved. Additionally, we will also specifically look into the disparities in today's Japan, the problems associated with them, and make evidence-based policy recommendations. To do so, we believe that historical viewpoints and international comparisons are essential. Our project, therefore, will continue to conduct research in collaboration with researchers specializing in disparities from around the world. We aim to build better policy by shedding light on the Japanese disparity problem through the point of comparative economic history.
Although the collective term "emerging countries" is used, social and economic institutions and levels of economic development vary across countries and regions such as China, Russia, South America, and Southeast Asia. Moreover, although it is essential to acquire sufficient official statistics in emerging countries, the information in these statistics is significantly lacking, and on many occasions, there are legal and institutional restrictions on obtaining these data. The use of independent data is a prerequisite for our research.
Through this project, we will collaborate with researchers from around the world and with other political institutions, create a new database, promote the development of historical statistics, and conduct an empirical analysis of each country's current economic system and the process of its development. Using a standardized framework, we will analyze and compare them, and we will work to clarify the common factors or singularities lying among these emerging countries.
The first goal of the SDGs is to end poverty in all its forms everywhere. To help design and implement appropriate development policies, it is important to understand precisely how the market economy works in low-income countries of Asia and Africa. The causes of absolute poverty in these countries are similar to many of the problems Japan faced before WWII.
The project will not only empirically analyze the determinants of institutions and causal effects of policies by collecting original microdata through field surveys and other means in Asia and Africa, but will also include the historical experiences of Japan and other developed countries in the analysis to derive new knowledge on long-term development strategies to realize poverty reduction.
Hitotsubashi University Official Web Site ≫